Pricing is the single most consequential decision in a sale. A home priced 5% above the market often sits, then chases the market down. A home priced right attracts competing interest in the first two to three weeks.
How a real CMA is built
A comparative market analysis (CMA) prices your home based on what comparable homes have actually sold for. A good CMA pulls:
- Recent solds — typically within the last 60–90 days, within a half-mile radius, similar in size, age, condition, and features.
- Active listings — what your home will be competing with right now.
- Pending sales — homes under contract, which signal current buyer behavior.
- Expired and withdrawn listings — quiet but useful evidence of what didn't sell at what price.
The CMA isn't just price-per-square-foot math. Adjustments matter: a comparable with a renovated kitchen sells for more; a comparable on a busy street sells for less. Done well, a CMA shows a realistic range, not a single number.
What the market is signaling
A few indicators worth reading before you set the list price:
- Months of inventory. Under 4 months suggests seller's market conditions; over 6 months suggests buyer's market. The Valley varies dramatically by submarket and price tier.
- Days on market for comparable solds. Faster = stronger demand at that price.
- Sale-to-list price ratio. Are comparables selling above, at, or below their list price?
- Price reductions. Look at active listings — how many have had reductions, and how big?
Pricing strategy
There are two main approaches:
Price at market value
Set the price where comparable homes have actually been selling. You attract a realistic pool of qualified buyers, generate steady traffic, and tend to negotiate in a normal range. This is usually the right play.
Price slightly under market
In strong demand conditions, deliberately listing just below market value can produce multiple offers and a sale above asking. This works when inventory is tight and there are enough buyers actively looking in that range. It does not work in slower markets, where it just leaves money on the table.
What rarely works: pricing above market and hoping for a buyer who'll pay it. Today's buyers have full visibility into recent solds, and overpriced homes get skipped. Even worse, the longer a home sits, the more buyers assume something is wrong with it.
Snowbird interest affects pricing patterns in some pockets — particularly Scottsdale, the East Valley golf communities, and the 55+ communities. Sellers there sometimes wait for the high season (roughly January–April), though "wait" carries its own cost in carrying expenses.
What buyers actually compare you to
Online portals show buyers everything in their price band. They click on listings within their range, ignore listings outside it. So one of the most useful exercises is to look at the homes a buyer with your target price would also be considering, and ask honestly: where does mine fit in that lineup?
- A good CMA gives you a range, not a single number — and is built from real comps, not formulas.
- The first two to three weeks are when serious buyers see you fresh. Don't waste them with an inflated price.
- Look at your direct competition the way a buyer would.
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